What a time we’re living in! 2022 is truly an emotional rollercoaster for all homeowners, homebuyers, sellers, and investors as the U.S. Federal Reserve has taken some bold moves to fight inflation. With multiple rate hikes along with numerous of unfortunate events happening, we’re heading toward a stormy recession. As the stock market is sliding downhill, companies are downsizing, and gas prices are climbing up, I personally don’t really blame homebuyers for pausing on their purchase.
With the demand drastically decreases, home prices must fall and be adjusted to meet the right demand level. But even then, the real questions are how quickly they can adjust and how far they will go down to. In other words, as most seasoned realtors would say, the market is going through a major correction either we are heading to or are already in a recession or not.
It’s not the current interest rate of 7% that we should be worrying! It’s how fast it got here.
I get it! Inflation isn’t a good thing for any economy and it’s completely understandable for the Fed to do what they’re doing. However, their approach may be a little bit too fast for the rest of the U.S. economy to catch up without going through some extremely rocky events.
Exactly a year ago, the housing market is hotter than the boiling point of water. In the market that our team is in, Orange County and Los Angeles County, buyers were bidding tens and even up to hundreds of thousands of dollars within a few days over listing price just for their offers to be considered by sellers. And now, with the prices are dropping, the market activities stay relatively low simply because buyers are not longer qualified for a mortgage with the current rate. And it’s a domino effect right? Because some sellers realize the potential of profits they can earn if they sell at the right time, they also hold off on selling now as they missed the peak instead of discounting their home prices.
With the Real Estate and Mortgage industry being hypersensitive to any rate change left alone doubling in less than a year, the effect on buyers’ and sellers’ motivation to transact is really exacerbated. Below is the 30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States, which you can learn more from the Economic Research – St. Louis Fed
And Prices will be expected to continue falling
I recalled sitting in my economic class at University of California, Berkeley, listening to the lags of monetary policies, and asking myself when I would see this. And here we are! That concept remains truer than ever.
Once again, either we are in a recession or not, with the pace the Fed is raising the rate, buyers and their income cannot keep up, which causes a huge gap between the listing price and their affordability. It’s not like we will get a 10% raise every single month! If you’re not familiar with the P/E ratio, you can learn more here.
According to the most recent research by the John Burns team, the economic downturn did not just affect the primary home market but it affects across all areas. Secondary Homes (Vacation Homes), Investment Properties, and New Constructions in most markets also take a big hit.
In order for the market to return back to a healthier level, buyer’s and seller’s expectations must meet in the middle. And yes, you guessed correctly! They’re not right now. And with the current interest rate, no way the buyer will continue to bid up in most markets.
According to Mark Zandi in a recent interview with CBS News, the Chief Economist of Moody’s Analytics, he implied that in 2023, there will be a high chance sellers will drop the home prices about 10%. And if that comes any earlier, we are looking at a 20% discount in 2024. Of course, as much as I’m siding with Zandi, this is all speculations at the moment so go easy on us! No one can predict the future.
And this is the lag I was referring to earlier. Theoretically, the equilibrium price point will be adjusted shortly after every rate adjustment but we are living in an imperfect world.
BUt Even with everything going on, the housing market won't nosedive
If you are expecting a major crash, you can keep waiting. I strongly believe that there is a valid argument for this statement and I stand firmly by it as we are in a fairly different situation now.
Unlike 2008 – 2009 housing market crash when anyone could just walk into a bank and get a loan, which led to more than 860,000 foreclosing cases (1.3MM cases filed) in 2008 alone, lenders are only issuing mortgages to qualified buyers only as they must meet multiple underwriting conditions. Banks and financial institutions are much more careful now as they are under heavy regulations by government agencies along with strict underwriting guidelines of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac in order to sell their loans on those markets.
Sure, there are more foreclosures comparing to last year (estimate of 160,000 filings) but a major wave is unlikely to happen. Source from Attom Data.
However, I can agree with most people out there that with or without a major crash, it’s going to be unpleasant regardless. Even as a Real Estate Agent and a Loan Professional, unless you have an abundant amount of cash, I really don’t blame you for holding on to your cash or allocating them toward something else with higher priorites.
Have a Topic in mind?
Let us know by filling out the form below or contact us here and we will be more than happy to dive deep in future blogs